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After a tumultuous week last week on the currency trading markets, forex traders are praying for a quiet week to let their stomachs settle after the rollercoaster ride of Thursday and Friday’s trading. Fears of a Greek default and then a lacklustre Federal Open Market Committee meeting all mounted up to a 6% drop in equity markets. Forex trading strategies were derailed by the US Federal Reserve announcing that it wouldn’t be expanding the size of the balance sheet but instead would just be restructuring its composition a little. This knocked back investor confidence and the result was a sea of red screens in the forex trading rooms as Dollar prices tumbled.

This week lacks the plethora of data release that we saw last week, but once again the Greek situation has reared its ugly head. The sovereign debt risk is making everyone edgy, and forex markets are watching nervously to try and anticipate which way the Euro will go. Predictions are down, as Greece draws ever closer to a default on some of its loans.

It’s not all bad news in the Eurozone. Germany has started to see a positive trickle-down effect from the relatively high interest rates set by the European Central Bank, with an anticipated consumer price index detracting by –0.1%. This would maintain the inflation rate of Europe’s largest economy at 2.4%, showing that the Germans have inflation under control. But the big question is whether Germany’s good fortune is enough to prop up the other Eurozone countries and in turn the European forex markets. Words such as ‘financial meltdown’ and ‘double-dip recession’ are being bandied about as Eurozone countries start to see sharp declines in growth. The currency trading markets are already starting to react to this, with the Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps showing that 9.0-basis points are potentially priced out of the Euro over the next 12 months. If Greece defaults (as many forex traders believe it will shortly), that number could be revised once again.

Over in the US, the economy numbers came back worse than expected, with the country experiencing slower growth in Q2 of 2011. The GDP figure came in at a 1.0% annualised rate, compared to an initial 1.8% expectation. The final number is expected to be 1.2%, but a revision back down to 1% wouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone. This hasn’t helped currency trading in the Dollar, which has effectively flatlined over the past week, and forex trading experts are expecting another week of little or no change in the USD/Euro. But after last week’s dizzying falls and trepidation, perhaps a quiet week is just what everyone needs right now.

SVSFX specialise in Forex Trading Platform and offer help and advice on such related matters

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